Where do we stand with the energy transition in the Netherlands?
At the Energietransitie Feiten-Symposium, the renewable energy and gas sectors joined forces to get visitors to look beyond perceptions to hard numbers.
As Project Manager at New Energy Coalition, I had the honour of attending the Energietransitie Feiten-Symposium on 12 March at Pakhuis de Zwijger in Amsterdam on behalf of our organisation. This event, organised by the Royal Association of Gas Producers in the Netherlands (KVGN), the Dutch Sustainable Energy Association (NVDE) and New Energy Coalition, offered an in-depth look at the facts and prospects of the energy transition in the Netherlands. Experts from Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Hanzehogeschool Groningen and The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS), among others, shared insights on the current state of affairs, the challenges towards 2050 and the necessary choices to be made.
2030 targets within reach, but 2050 remains uncertain
Jaco Stremler, sector head Climate, Air & Energy at Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), presented a mostly positive analysis of the Netherlands’ climate goals for 2030. According to him, the Netherlands is well on track to meet these targets, but major challenges remain for the longer term towards 2050.
The mobility sector, currently the largest source of nitrogen emissions, is showing a decline due to the rise of electric vehicles, especially in passenger transport. However, international shipping remains one of the largest emitters in the Netherlands and will need special attention in the transition. Biofuels, together with electrification, will become a crucial factor in the energy transition along with hydrogen, waste recycling and geothermal energy. Essential building blocks for the energy transition are electrons (renewable electricity), green gas and carbon management. It was also underlined that CO2 neutrality is not possible without Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). Empty gas fields can play a role here as storage sites for captured CO2, e.g. for refinery processes. The transition towards 2050 requires bold choices and large-scale investments.
Market mechanisms and energy prices under pressure
Martien Visser, Lecturer in Energy Transition at Hanzehogeschool Groningen and Manager Corporate Strategy at Gasunie, reflected on the 2013 Energy Agreement, which was an important start for energy transition in the Netherlands. He pointed out that the Netherlands still uses relatively little biomass compared to other European countries, while renewable electricity production is well on track.
One of the major challenges Visser mentioned is the linking of the electricity price to the gas price. This mechanism ensures that energy prices in the Netherlands will remain relatively high in the coming years. This affects both industry and consumers, raising questions about the long-term affordability of the energy transition.
Global context and geopolitical challenges
In contrast, Irina Patrahau, Strategic Analyst at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS), placed the energy transition in a global context. She pointed out that the biggest emitters worldwide – China, the United States, India and Brazil – do not yet show a fundamental change of course, partly due to trade conflicts and geopolitical tensions. International cooperation remains complicated as a result, with many countries reluctant to make concessions. This makes the global energy transition slow, while global warming has now exceeded the critical limit of 1.5 degrees.
Despite this global stagnation, the Netherlands remains optimistic about its own transition. The focus is on investments in offshore wind, although this development lags behind expectations. In addition, the affordability of the energy transition remains a major concern.
Conclusion: Opportunities and challenges on the road to 2050
The Energietransitie Feiten-Symposium offered valuable insights into the energy transition. Although the Netherlands is well on its way to meet the 2030 climate targets, the period until 2050 remains uncertain and challenging. Strategic choices are needed on CO2 reduction, infrastructure and energy tariffs. Cooperation and innovation remain essential to make the energy transition a success.
